Tag: Neil Howe

January 24, 2025 – The Fourth Turning, Chapter 3

January 24, 2025 /

What can I say, there is a lot here. As I read further, I get a little more confused or muddled because of the context switching and lack of total command of the subject matter. This is one of those books I should probably read more than once to get the best value from it. But, never fear. I am doing my best to get an accurate explanation out.

Generations I get. Seasons I get. Architypes I get. Moving from architype to season to generation, not so much. Let me try to use an example. I am Generation X. At the time the book was written, it was called Generation 13, Gen-X had yet to be universally adopted as Gen-X was used to describe the very latest Baby Boomers (more on that in a bit).

Based on my current age, my season is Fall. Zero to 20 is Spring, 21-40 is Summer, 41-60 is Fall and 60+ is winter. When the book was written, I was in Summer so you have to keep remembering the context of theory and not trying to tie in current day which is somewhat confusing.

Now this is where things get kind of confusing. My architype is nomad. This has to do with the characteristics of my generation. One word to describe that would be alienated. In contrast, the GI generation was the Hero – heroic generation, the Korean war vets (Silent) were the Artist – sensitive and the Baby boomers were the Profit – narcissistic generation.

Imagine the confusion when the book bounces between 13ers/Gen-X/Summer/Nomad. Not only do you need to master time context but also the terms. As I am reading I have to keep recalibrating that calculus to follow along. But it is all good.

This chapter is all about seasons, so hopefully we have all the basic vocabulary down finally. The point is that as the generations move through time, they have roles to play. As an example Fall is the season that generation assumes power or control. In theory, at this time Generation X should be becoming the predominant generation for power.

We should all know from national politics that Trump is a Boomer and Biden is the Silent Generation. As far as VPs go Harris is Generation X and Vance is a Millennial. I think the fundamental question is will Generation X ever assume control? This chapter answered one of my fundamental generation questions. There is a hard line in terms of generation inclusion based on birthdate. But, the reproductive cycle is unpredictable.

For this reason, Boomers and Gen-X have had children that fall into the Millennial generation. The generation that is the most powerful (usually the largest) will have undue influence over the new generation. For this reason, we are seeing the Boomers still hanging on in politics and business leadership. But it goes much farther and deeper than that.

It has to do with societal group think. What are the school board policies? How should the public react to untested vaccines? Gay marriage? Marijuana? Even though a generation might universally agree with positions, it wasn’t until the Boomers were solidly in power that we saw those changes come into effect.

For that reason, I suspect that the Millennials will shortly grab the torch from the Boomers. We will likely see adoption of Trans rights when that generation is solidly in power. Where do those ideas come from? Their spring season of course. Remember which generation had undue influence, the Boomers. See, it is not that hard.

Given that Boomers were born all the way to 1964, that puts the very youngest at 61. It is very likely that Trump will be the last Boomer president. Though not impossible to have one last Baby Boomer president, are we ready for a Gen-X or Millennial president? Ready or not, here it comes and all that goes with it.

End Your Programming Routine: I definitely could have written a lot more today. I feel like I have a much better handle on generations and what there are influences and why. If you are not reading with me, then you are definitely missing some stuff. As an example, the book uses famous names to the generations as well as more than a one word definition to the Archetype. That also helps with context.

January 17, 2025 – The Fourth Turning, Chapter 2

January 17, 2025 /

In my exuberance to keep reading, I forgot some of the facts. I definitely got the main points but I wanted to make sure that I got the important things in detail since I have a whole day to write for. So, I had to kind of re-read the chapter to refresh myself on the details. This is the whole definition of saeculum.

The word saeculum is of Latin origin. The actual etymology is unknown but the term is attributed to the Roman Censorinus. He essentially codified or named the belief that the Roman competitors called the Etruscans believed. The way it worked was when the last living person that remembered a particular event died, then time started over.

It would be interesting to figure out what that actual thing was, but certainly we have had some galvanizing events in our history, say 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. This saeculum is deemed a human century. But, circular time is not unique to European culture for good reason. The Mayans and Hindus also had circular time because it was natural, following the seasons.

If time was circular, then certainly halfway between where you start and where you end is another significant event. This is the concept of Yin and Yang, something I have talked a little about with the Art of War. This is the reason for the balance between the two like Summer and Winter. I would be remised to not mention that others put a little more granularity into the circle. This is where we have Spring juxtaposed against fall.

As of 1997, American history perfectly followed a 80-100 year cycle. I am going to summarize the author’s analysis of American history.

  • Medevil
    • Crisis: War of the Roses (1459-7)
  • Reformation (103 years)
    • Climax: Protestant Reformation (1517 – 42)
    • Crisis: Armada Crisis (1569-94)
  • New World (101 years)
    • Climax: Puritan Awakening (1621-49)
    • Crisis: Glorious Revolution (1675-1704)
  • Revolutionary (92 years)
    • Climax: Great Awakening (1727-46)
    • Crisis: American Revolution (1773-1794)
  • Civil War (82 years)
    • Climax: Transcendental Awakening (1822-44)
    • Crisis: Civil War (1860-5)
  • Great Power (81 years)
    • Climax: Third Great Awakening (1886-1908)
    • Crisis: Great Depression and World War II (1929-46)
  • Millennial
    • Climax: Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984)
    • Crisis: 2025?

There are some of us that are wondering when the next crisis is due. By the math it would be this year. Something to note is that puts us at 81 years past the last cycle. Some cycles are 100 years while others are only 80 and therefore, it could be that the Consciousness Revolution is not at the climax at only 30 years beyond WWII.

However, having lived through most of it, I cannot see any other climax in that time frame. Generation X fits the prototype of the Fall generation with Millennials as the Crisis generation. We just don’t know.

One thing I find extremely interesting is every single climax is religious based. I have to wonder about our perceptive shift away from religion since the last Crisis. As such, has there been a true or detectable climax in this cycle? It was probably easier to say that the Consciousness Revolution in 1997 was the climax and add fifty years.

But what if the climax was secular? I would probably pick the late 1990s to early 2000s as the Internet revolution. The economy was the new God. If that were true then that puts the next crisis at 2030-2045. I would certainly argue that today’s political climate seems more like the 1850s with talk of succession and very clearly disgruntled constituents. The other thing to consider is that if Strauss and Howe are correct, we are due for some pain very shortly.

End Your Programming Routine: Hopefully you got the gist of saeculum. I find it fascinating that history has tracked so tightly to these timelines it gives a lot of credibility to the theory actually being true. It looks like the next chapter is about more granularity in that cycle. Think Spring and Fall.

January 10, 2025 – The Fourth Turning, Chapter 1

January 10, 2025 /

Finally, it seems like a book that I can get into. I have already read beyond the required chapter as I am writing this. This book seems like one of those that I could read a couple of times because it is pretty deep. Not only is it filled with history and facts but it is deep as well.

I will cover a little more than Chapter One today because the preface is relevant to the whole story of the book. The preface is an update on the span of things that have taken place since the book was written. Unfortunately Strauss has passed away but the book was published in 1997. For you math challenged, that is over 25 years ago. And if you follow the book, that is an entire generation.

I talk about the nineties a lot but it is helpful for perspective. 1997 was squarely in the heyday of Generation X. The oldest Xers were in their early thirties and the youngest were in their mid teens. Not only has twenty-five years of history past but so has the perspective of what those events meant. I will extend some grace to the book as result, but any good and valid theory should be able to stand the test of time.

The key concept in this chapter is the measurements of time. According to the authors, there are three measurements of time. They are described chaotic, linear and circular. Let me give a brief definition of each.

  • Chaotic – Random or unrelated
  • Linear – Continually evolving or not repeating
  • Circular – Repeating

Let me try to explain a little more behind these three from the perspective of Strauss and Howe. It is widely held that Chaotic time is pre-recorded history. What they are saying is that there was no record of events beyond the living. As a result, everything seemed random or unrelated. The hundred year flood probably occurred before the last living soul and therefore it seems cataclymic.

Linear time came into being largely as a result of religion. I am most familiar with Christianity so I can speak to that. When Christ was born, the Jewish belief of the coming of God was fulfilled. As we sit, we are waiting for the rapture or the second coming in 2025 Anno Domini. Once that occurs, life as we know it will no longer exist. Therefore, as far as Christian history is concerned this is a linear pattern.

Many ancient cultures actually believe in circular time. There is much more about this next chapter so I don’t really want to spoil next week. Regardless of religion, the earth has a cycle, seasons have a cycle so why not time? This belief was superseded after the fall of Rome and the heavy dominance of the church but was rediscovered in the Renaissance in the western world.

It should be no surprise that I think the truth is somewhere between the Vin diagram of the three. There has to be some random events, Those would have to lead to linear time but in turn, common existence is circular. Lets go back in time to a controversial or unproven history. What if the meteor had not hit the earth and created a global cloud that killed the dinosaurs? That is random and linear. While the earth’s celestial travel is circular, the chances of a collision again have not been mathematically determined. The odds of it happening again are not known but it at least seems chaotic.

I don’t think that it is foreshadowing or even a spoiler to say that Strauss and Howe believe in circular time. For that matter, I believe I do as well. It is their contention that cycles have highs and lows but that means that we as a society are bound to experience both. When you look at their perspective and timing of the book, they were in the midst of a huge economic boom and the fall of the Soviet Union. The US was unstoppable in the late 1990s. Uh Oh, trouble is bound to follow, but where? Hence the name of the chapter “Winter Comes Again”.

End Your Programming Routine: OK, so we are off to a good start. Next week is going to be all about the origin and particulars of circular time. This is the setup for the whole premise theory so we have to restrain ourselves just a little bit. Let us enjoy the journey a little bit since last year was a difficult one on Friday.