January 17, 2025 – The Fourth Turning, Chapter 2

January 17, 2025 / / 0 Comments

In my exuberance to keep reading, I forgot some of the facts. I definitely got the main points but I wanted to make sure that I got the important things in detail since I have a whole day to write for. So, I had to kind of re-read the chapter to refresh myself on the details. This is the whole definition of saeculum.

The word saeculum is of Latin origin. The actual etymology is unknown but the term is attributed to the Roman Censorinus. He essentially codified or named the belief that the Roman competitors called the Etruscans believed. The way it worked was when the last living person that remembered a particular event died, then time started over.

It would be interesting to figure out what that actual thing was, but certainly we have had some galvanizing events in our history, say 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. This saeculum is deemed a human century. But, circular time is not unique to European culture for good reason. The Mayans and Hindus also had circular time because it was natural, following the seasons.

If time was circular, then certainly halfway between where you start and where you end is another significant event. This is the concept of Yin and Yang, something I have talked a little about with the Art of War. This is the reason for the balance between the two like Summer and Winter. I would be remised to not mention that others put a little more granularity into the circle. This is where we have Spring juxtaposed against fall.

As of 1997, American history perfectly followed a 80-100 year cycle. I am going to summarize the author’s analysis of American history.

  • Medevil
    • Crisis: War of the Roses (1459-7)
  • Reformation (103 years)
    • Climax: Protestant Reformation (1517 – 42)
    • Crisis: Armada Crisis (1569-94)
  • New World (101 years)
    • Climax: Puritan Awakening (1621-49)
    • Crisis: Glorious Revolution (1675-1704)
  • Revolutionary (92 years)
    • Climax: Great Awakening (1727-46)
    • Crisis: American Revolution (1773-1794)
  • Civil War (82 years)
    • Climax: Transcendental Awakening (1822-44)
    • Crisis: Civil War (1860-5)
  • Great Power (81 years)
    • Climax: Third Great Awakening (1886-1908)
    • Crisis: Great Depression and World War II (1929-46)
  • Millennial
    • Climax: Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984)
    • Crisis: 2025?

There are some of us that are wondering when the next crisis is due. By the math it would be this year. Something to note is that puts us at 81 years past the last cycle. Some cycles are 100 years while others are only 80 and therefore, it could be that the Consciousness Revolution is not at the climax at only 30 years beyond WWII.

However, having lived through most of it, I cannot see any other climax in that time frame. Generation X fits the prototype of the Fall generation with Millennials as the Crisis generation. We just don’t know.

One thing I find extremely interesting is every single climax is religious based. I have to wonder about our perceptive shift away from religion since the last Crisis. As such, has there been a true or detectable climax in this cycle? It was probably easier to say that the Consciousness Revolution in 1997 was the climax and add fifty years.

But what if the climax was secular? I would probably pick the late 1990s to early 2000s as the Internet revolution. The economy was the new God. If that were true then that puts the next crisis at 2030-2045. I would certainly argue that today’s political climate seems more like the 1850s with talk of succession and very clearly disgruntled constituents. The other thing to consider is that if Strauss and Howe are correct, we are due for some pain very shortly.

End Your Programming Routine: Hopefully you got the gist of saeculum. I find it fascinating that history has tracked so tightly to these timelines it gives a lot of credibility to the theory actually being true. It looks like the next chapter is about more granularity in that cycle. Think Spring and Fall.

January 16, 2025 – A New Year, New Gear Part 2

January 16, 2025 / / 0 Comments

Meet my new pack. A brand new, 65L pack made by Gregory. As far as I am concerned, I am pretty brand agnostic. I guess to be totally truthful, I would prefer to support brands and companies that reflect my values and I bought this one without any research because it was the right size and fit the load the best of the ones I tried.

What I want you to know about packs is to go somewhere where people know what they are talking about. Yes, I bought a pack from a box store in the past without any sort of sales help. And if you are already an expert then that is fine. But this time, I went to a specialty store. I am not going to lie, it was REI and they do not generally reflect my values. That being said, they offer options and they provide help by people that actually do the work.

The first thing that they asked was have I been measured? Of course, the answer was no. I don’t remember the exact numbers but the results were the top end of medium and the bottom end of large. The reason this is important is that packs are sized both in what they can hold and the structure on how they fit on the body. Not only that, but different brands interpret S/M/L as exactly the same. Hence, go to a store that is knowledgeable about the product.

Another service that I got was having the pack roughly adjusted and a load added for each of the potential options. I was able have the pack optimized and walk around the store, including flights of stairs and see which one worked the best. You don’t get that from a box store or the internet for sure. Most of the other gear can be coped with but a pack is critical to be right. Hopefully, I made my point.

Another major difference between my 1990s, external frame pack and my new one is that the old one was designed to lash gear to the outside. That is where I put my sleeping bag, tent and pad. All bulky and heavy. For that reason, new gear needs to be considered to be put inside of my new pack. Everything, including sleeping bags are smaller today because they need to fit inside the zippers. So, the gear strategy is different than it used to be requiring evaluation of all of my old stuff.

A general rule of thumb is bags up to 25L are considered day packs. 30-50L packs are a couple of days and 50-70L are the week long size. Any larger than that and things are too heavy to reasonably pack. My current training pack is a 40L pack. I put some weight in it to give me something to lug around. I bought this pack with the idea that I would use it for weekend trips. Truthfully, I have used it very little since I bought it so it was almost new when I started training.

Incidentally, I was looking at the tag on my 40L pack and it was marked S/M. I have been having some problems with straps staying tight as I walk, While not completely uncomfortable, I wonder if that pack is actually too small for me. I thought the size denoted the capacity not knowing that they were built for body types.

One last thing to consider on packs. My two older packs are top loading. The advantage of that is that everything is well contained and they are considered to be able to hold more. Packs that can access the contents from the front are significantly easier to use. You do not have to dump everything to get to the bottom. I found with top loading options that the pack needed to be repacked every day.

I have tried to pack strategically but inevitably you should only be packing the things that you need. Therefore, everything needs to be accessed. This leads to dumping the pack every day and repacking. That is kind of a pain, I am hoping that this new, front loading pack is much more user friendly, but I will have to use it to be sure.

End Your Programming Routine: I have one more major piece of gear that I need to get and that is a tent. I am researching that now so more on that later. My plan is to keep using my training setup on a daily basis and to take my new pack out on some weekend testing. That probably wont happen until I have the tent however. Right now, I am just filling the new pack up with new stuff. That is my specialty.

January 15, 2025 – Wildfire, Go Now!

January 15, 2025 / / 0 Comments

It is hard for me to say that fires are getting worse or there is just so many more people in proximity to the wild fire boundaries. Of course, the usual suspects wasted no time assigning this fire to climate change and it is our retribution for our fossil fuel reliance. I say it is waaay more complicated than that.

Early indicators say that this is another fire triggered by high winds causing sparking transmission lines in an unkempt power right away. Now we have Paradise, Maui and almost assuredly the LA fires with the same cause and deadly results. The latest conventional wisdom says to prevent these fires, turn off the power before the transmission lines spark.

Why that was not done, I don’t know. If I were to speculate I would say that it was probably too inconvenient for the residents and a lot of loud mouth, wimps that are prevalent in Southern California. That being said, let us put further blame and speculation behind us. Wild fire is no joke and survival is not a political topic.

We are very familiar with wildfire in the west. It just so happens the our fire season correlates with the dry season July – September. Being fire ready in January seems very out of mind to me. But, I suppose that is altered reality of California; nothing ever seems real.

The first step in this is to survive. Yes, there are anecdotal stories of people staying behind in Paradise and hosing down their homes with garden hoses and ultimately saving them and surviving. However, eighty-four people didn’t survive that fire. I would venture to say that more people died than survived staying home. The best tactic is to leave.

I don’t know the details and therefore it would be presumptuous of me to say that I would have been ready to leave with everything that I needed. But house fire or wild fire have the same result, so a fire plan is in order for everyone. What is your prioritized list of things to grab if you have time? Do your vehicles have enough fuel (or range) to withstand hours worth of traffic? Is there even an exit route possible when vehicles clog the roads?

I highly doubt that that it is possible to develop a perfectly, flexible plan. But thought can be a head start to reduce panic and regret. Having an assembly point, a place to go, insurance and documentation can go a long way to evacuation peace of mind. Everyone talks about the regret of losing memories, but it is often times not practical to grab that stuff before you leave unless you keep them ready to go at all times. That also seems not very practical.

I like a prepared car and a go bag would be a pretty good idea as well. This way if it is flood or fire or a zombie hoard you have a few things to hold through. Some snacks, a change of clothes, some toiletries and a deck of cards and a refillable water bottle would make life a little more comfortable for a couple of hopeful days. Those things could be ready for any emergency and a moment’s notice.

End Your Programming Routine: We all say this ‘It’s just stuff’. I sure would hate to have to make that decision but I also understand that we are not taking it with us. From that standpoint, survival is paramount. I am a big proponent of leaving when the ‘Go Now’ is given. Fortunately, I live in a very low risk area for that sort of thing but that doesn’t mean that I cannot have a house fire. Mindset. That is the most important thing.

January 14, 2025 – I Have GPS, Why Would I Need a Compass?

January 14, 2025 / / 0 Comments

When I was a Boy Scout, it was a troop requirement to have a whistle and compass if you were going to leave camp. The theory was that you weren’t going to get lost but if you did, the compass was going to get you home and if that failed, blow your whistle until you were found. Keep reading to find out that was partially hooey.

My new compass

A GPS is an incredibly useful device. You can set a pin for your vehicle or camp and in theory, all you have to do to get back is keep walking to the pin. Rather an absolute navigation tool, the best use for GPS is actually relative data like how far or how fast it has been because strictly speaking it is not a perfect navigation signal.

While GPS can be pretty basic, it can also be much more interactive. In the simplest terms, The world have been mapped as a grid. A connection between you and the satellite just says where you are in that grid. Without a map, the context of that number is almost meaningless. It is possible to get coordinates to a destination and then you can simply navigate between where you are at to that coordinate destination.

The more sophisticated devices have an internal memory or at least a way to insert a micro SD card. That is where you would put your map which then gives context to the screen. Today’s younger generation has bypassed those devices in favor of the mobile phone which already has a GPS built in and plenty of memory. Services such as On-X provide detailed maps as a subscription service making the old GPS devices seem like dinosaurs.

Great… so why would we need a compass if this gizmo does everything that I want? First of all, if you don’t know how to use a compass it does you no good at all. Second, without a map even knowing how to use a compass has very little value. Sure, you should be able to find North pretty easily, but I would expect even a novice outdoors person to be able to do that by the sky. This is why carrying a compass in Boy Scouts was little more than mental dissidence.

I have found two significant problems with GPS devices. The first is terrain and vegetation will block satellite signals. This makes these expensive gizmos useless. The second is that they all run on batteries, so unless you are going to have a way to power them, they are going to stop working (relatively quickly). This is not to say that I am not going to continue to use them, but I recognize the limitations and they may not make the final gear list.

I will carry a map, so I might as well also have a compass. I should also point out that the map should preferably be a topographic map. You are going to use the highest points as targets to try and figure out where you are on the map with lines called azimuths. Once you know where you are, then you can figure out how to get where you are going to go. A compass will provide the bearing as you continue to walk in the direction of your target.

I will likely not use orienteering for navigation. The trail will be relatively well marked and the map will likely come out with signage and other landmarks. People do say that at times the trail is not well marked or covered with snow so it is possible to get off course. I have learned ‘Be Prepared’ even if it comes with a weight penalty. I will also have my watch (GPS) and likely my phone another GPS. All of these things need practice for proficiency.

End Your Programming Routine: I should probably write another article that talks about orienteering strictly because there is more to know as well as some other issues. But I think that you can tell I am advocating for map and compass. The National Geographic map of the PCT is larger than pocket sized but very detailed. You can’t go wrong with learning another practical skill especially one that doesn’t need batteries or a satellite signal. It might even save your life.

January 13, 2025 – If There Was Something To Like …

January 13, 2025 / / 0 Comments

about a Politician, then this might be the one. There has been a lot of to do about recently deceased, former president Jimmie Carter. I acknowledged last week, while I was alive during the entire term of Jimmie Carter I don’t remember a single thing. As a result, I have been reading a lot of anecdotes and other things about the man. Dare I say, his legacy as a President might be dubious but his legacy as human is impeccable. Is there anything else more important?

January 10, 2025 – The Fourth Turning, Chapter 1

January 10, 2025 / / 0 Comments

Finally, it seems like a book that I can get into. I have already read beyond the required chapter as I am writing this. This book seems like one of those that I could read a couple of times because it is pretty deep. Not only is it filled with history and facts but it is deep as well.

I will cover a little more than Chapter One today because the preface is relevant to the whole story of the book. The preface is an update on the span of things that have taken place since the book was written. Unfortunately Strauss has passed away but the book was published in 1997. For you math challenged, that is over 25 years ago. And if you follow the book, that is an entire generation.

I talk about the nineties a lot but it is helpful for perspective. 1997 was squarely in the heyday of Generation X. The oldest Xers were in their early thirties and the youngest were in their mid teens. Not only has twenty-five years of history past but so has the perspective of what those events meant. I will extend some grace to the book as result, but any good and valid theory should be able to stand the test of time.

The key concept in this chapter is the measurements of time. According to the authors, there are three measurements of time. They are described chaotic, linear and circular. Let me give a brief definition of each.

  • Chaotic – Random or unrelated
  • Linear – Continually evolving or not repeating
  • Circular – Repeating

Let me try to explain a little more behind these three from the perspective of Strauss and Howe. It is widely held that Chaotic time is pre-recorded history. What they are saying is that there was no record of events beyond the living. As a result, everything seemed random or unrelated. The hundred year flood probably occurred before the last living soul and therefore it seems cataclymic.

Linear time came into being largely as a result of religion. I am most familiar with Christianity so I can speak to that. When Christ was born, the Jewish belief of the coming of God was fulfilled. As we sit, we are waiting for the rapture or the second coming in 2025 Anno Domini. Once that occurs, life as we know it will no longer exist. Therefore, as far as Christian history is concerned this is a linear pattern.

Many ancient cultures actually believe in circular time. There is much more about this next chapter so I don’t really want to spoil next week. Regardless of religion, the earth has a cycle, seasons have a cycle so why not time? This belief was superseded after the fall of Rome and the heavy dominance of the church but was rediscovered in the Renaissance in the western world.

It should be no surprise that I think the truth is somewhere between the Vin diagram of the three. There has to be some random events, Those would have to lead to linear time but in turn, common existence is circular. Lets go back in time to a controversial or unproven history. What if the meteor had not hit the earth and created a global cloud that killed the dinosaurs? That is random and linear. While the earth’s celestial travel is circular, the chances of a collision again have not been mathematically determined. The odds of it happening again are not known but it at least seems chaotic.

I don’t think that it is foreshadowing or even a spoiler to say that Strauss and Howe believe in circular time. For that matter, I believe I do as well. It is their contention that cycles have highs and lows but that means that we as a society are bound to experience both. When you look at their perspective and timing of the book, they were in the midst of a huge economic boom and the fall of the Soviet Union. The US was unstoppable in the late 1990s. Uh Oh, trouble is bound to follow, but where? Hence the name of the chapter “Winter Comes Again”.

End Your Programming Routine: OK, so we are off to a good start. Next week is going to be all about the origin and particulars of circular time. This is the setup for the whole premise theory so we have to restrain ourselves just a little bit. Let us enjoy the journey a little bit since last year was a difficult one on Friday.

January 9, 2025 – A New Year, New Gear Part 1

January 9, 2025 / / 0 Comments

When I first announced that I was going to do this, I had over a year. Now I am looking at six months. I am no where near prepared with my biggest worry is my fitness. The bad weather, low daylight, holiday pre-occupation along with my summer interruption last year has really cut into time I feel like I need. This has to become the primary focus as I prepare.

I don’t really want to dwell too much that aspect here. I don’t find it that interesting to write or read. Even though I have a version of most of the gear from the early 1990s, I have a list of gear to get for my modern challenge. All told, I expect the gear-up to cost around $2000. While I could probably get-by, borrow or skip a lot of it. $2000 for a week’s worth of vacation doesn’t seem that unreasonable.

On the scale of continuity, safety follows comfort and then enjoyment. I do plan on getting a satellite beacon for emergency communications. Being of questionable fitness, you never know if I end up rolling my ankle or god forbid some sort of heart attack or even a snake bite. I definitely plan on doing what I can to shore up my fitness, but stuff happens like lightning strikes.

I know from my half marathon days that shoes are important. Recently, I have been getting pain in my hip and knee after my training walks. That is the tell-tale sign that my shoes have broken down. I not only need shoes now, but I need to find the shoe that I don’t want to throw off the cliff (you knew that was coming…). Conventional running wisdom says that shoes are good for about 300 miles before they start breaking down. This also means I will likely go through at least two pairs of shoes before this hike is in the books.

I have loved the heck out of Keens that I bought. I wanted durable, water proof shoes when I was delivering for Amazon. I wanted to step in puddles and not care. They have done that for years. I also like that I don’t have to untie them to get my foot securely in the shoe. But, I don’t like the sole construction. I have had to repair the soles multiple times and I certainly don’t want to have that worry on the trail.

While very comfortable, they also feel heavy and clunky. I tried on a new pair Keens at REI and they felt like an old friend. So, that brand is still on the list due to my four years of heavy use and comfort. I opted to try the Merrill Moab 3 instead. These are still waterproof but the sole looks like it has a propensity to stay stuck on the shoe. I just started breaking these in, so the jury is still out.

I definitely like the water proof aspect for my current training but that is a property that I probably wont need on the trail. Another thing that I like about the Merrill is that they make the same shoe without Gore Tex. So I could have summer and winter shoes that basically fit the same without the extra sweatiness and bulk.

I am not totally in the tank for a light hiker either. I tried on some trail running shoes in this session. Part of me thinks that I want more of a running shoe as I practice around the city and on pavement. The hikers seem to be more rugged but that comes at bulk and weight. Besides durability, I don’t think that hikers are necessarily better shoes for safety or stability. I do think they will provide more miles before breakdown. Soles aside from my Keens, I get no pain from walking in them all day long.

At my wife’s urging, I also picked up a couple pairs of socks. One is a synthetic and the other is a Merino wool. The added advantage of technical socks is that they wick moisture away from your feet. This would be from sweat or puddles. This makes for more comfortable feet and a must for an enjoyable hike. Given that I am going to have a limited wardrobe, probably two pairs of socks, Merino wool had the added advantage of extended odor resistance. This is less muss and fuss about that gear component.

End Your Programming Routine: I had actually planned on talking about all of my new gear but it turns out I had more to say about shoes than I thought I did. Next week, I will discuss my new pack and what I have learned about packs. Because of the pain I have been experiencing after my walks, I have been holding back on my walks recently. I have to correct that first if I am going to get my fitness ready in time. Very important when it is my first worry.

January 8, 2025 – Flavor: The Science of Our Most Forgotten Sense

January 8, 2025 / / 0 Comments

Flavor was going to be an LCCBC selection for November. That is until circumstances changed but I had bought the book already. It is not a terribly long book. Even so, it took me quite a while to read with all of the interruptions of the holidays. I started it over the Thanksgiving week but finished it only a couple days ago.

The book is a combination of the fascination and the mundane. For instance, flavor is the combination of taste and scent and memory. I had never considered it before, I thought flavor and taste were actually the same thing. Memory had nothing to do with it. How fascinating.

On the contrary, some of the stories and anecdotes are repetitive in certain chapters. About two thirds of the way through the book, I was ready to give it a thumbs down due to just not enough content. But, I kept going and was rewarded with theories on developing flavor in meat and steaks.

What I learned about flavor was definitely interesting. First of all, a lot of flavor is scent. People that lose scent for whatever reason also tend to lose the ability to taste. From that point, eating is only a matter of survival and that can be a push. The author also proclaims that humans ability to detect scent is just as good as other animals (including dogs). The difference is that because we are upright, we are much farther away from most scents on the ground.

Taste is much more of a mystery. Apparently, there are 400 some taste receptors. They are specifically oriented toward specific compounds. Because there are millions of compounds, receptors have to do multiple duty or work in some sort of combination. In addition, some receptors commonly die as we age. For that reason, our preference/tolerance for certain compounds change over time. All of this work is incredibly speculative given the sensitive location of the receptors.

Flavor is the money. We all at least know somebody that cannot stand tequila or gin. The memory of the experience is a survival mechanism to keep us from accidentally poisoning ourselves. Extremely positive and negative memories from certain foods are built into our genetic responses.

It took me years to be able to smell let alone eat the Olive Garden salad dressing. When we arrived from our honeymoon in Mexico we went out to Olive Garden for dinner. I picked up a bug in Mexico that led to 105 degree temperatures amongst the polite symptoms. It was that strong vinegar component. I still loved all other high acid, vinegar forward foods but it was that particular combination (and probably setting). That memory has waned into a laugh now, but the flavor was real.

The other thing this book gets into is artificial flavoring. I am always into learning the dirty little secrets of the food industry. The biggest takeaway I got was that most real foods are way more complicated than what can be duplicated. It is not price competitive. The more a company wants to pay for flavor, the more things that can be put in to get closer to a natural flavor.

Since artificial flavoring is a compromise (even using the real chemicals we taste) there are also doppelgangers. Some flavors mimic or are similar too the real ones. This is the reason artificial grape tastes like artificial grape. The real compounds oxidize instantly and cannot be used realistically.

The most interesting and now defunct element of the book is that IBM developed artificial intelligence for food called Chef Watson. You could add an ingredient and get a suggested pairing or a couple of ingredients and get some recipes. IBM shut down Watson in 2021 but I suspect that newer technologies like Chat GPT has the same capabilities. This opens a whole new world to AI skeptics such as myself.

End Your Programming Routine: Let’s bottom line this. If you accept that there is going to be some repetition it is definitely worth the rest. As a chemist that has spent a large percentage of my career working with the food industry, I didn’t find the science overwhelming. I did find myself trying to visualize the chemical structure rather than accepting the name and moving on. Given my distance from chemical structures, I sometimes wandered off in the weeds. I don’t think a typical reader would have the same problem.

January 3, 2024 – I’ve Got Nothin’

January 3, 2025 / / 0 Comments

I was expecting to be finished with one book yesterday and begin the Fourth Turning series today. This post is more to inform that I haven’t even started reading yet. I do expect to begin the Fourth Turning next week, I am just unprepared at the moment.

This has been a season that I am ready to move on from. It is hard to explain but it feels like I have been waiting all year to get ready for the next thing only to find that I am still waiting and having things get in the way. That is a frustrating feeling for me and it doesn’t bode well for the upcoming year.

I don’t want to offer excuses but since I said that I intended to start the series this week, I needed to reset expectations. Having holidays in the middle of the week and not taking any additional time off has essentially caused all of the extra curricular activities to occur every day. On the first, I fell asleep on the couch about 6:30 PM out of sheer exhaustion. That was my first down day since early December.

I suppose the prime question is are things going to get better for me? I sure hope so but I also would like to know the answer. We can only do what we do. I plan to try and find some zen in the storm so I can keep on keeping on. Look to getting back on track next week.