With last week covering the Unravelling and the book being written in 1997, we are moving into speculation territory for the Crisis. Since the book was written, the author Howe has chimed in on some of his observations including the foreword of this book. His speculation is that the crisis was the 2008 financial crisis. That would make the Gray Champion someone like Dr. Ron Paul.

I could probably buy that part of the theory but I don’t know anyone that was directly effected by that event. Because of that, I really do have a hard time completely adopting this event as the actual catalyst. Quite frankly, I feel like 9/11 was more of a galvanizing event that set off a lot of things in the name of fighting terrorism. With that, I am wondering who the Gray Champion is. You are also missing the Nomad generation in charge on both events.

In both 9/11 and the 2008 crisis, you really do not have the Hero generation at the age of majority. Just looking at the year 2008, the Millennials span the age ranges of 12-28. The full generation is hardly in their full summer. While a twelve year old might be effected by the mortgage crisis they were hardly in position to do anything about it. My speculation is that with the delaying of marriage and families have pushed the generational turnings out later.

We will stick to the facts here. For a crisis saeculum, you have the following steps catalyst, regeneracy, climax, resolution. With the sort of sizzle/dud, I don’t know that anyone would agree with the steps being met for 9/11. Lest we talk about the financial problems of 2008. Leaving the crisis is supposed t put us at a generational high. I sure don’t see that either.

Next week, I will write about some of the potential triggers for the crisis, so I will stick to what I have been working with here. It seems like this current cycle is something extraordinary. Because the GI generation left World War II on a rocket ship, the economy was dominant from 1946 to the late 1970’s. The Awakening economy was much better than it was supposed to be.

Minus the late seventies to mid-1980s stagflation, the economy took off again in the 1990s just as the Baby Boomers were coming into mid-life and assuming the power structure. While Strauss and Howe labelled the Unravelling (84-??) the ‘Culture Wars’, that had nothing to do with how the economy was behaving. As a result, there wasn’t much appetite to actually unravel.

Given the extraordinary size and prosperity of both the Hero and Prophet generations, I am not convinced that this is an ordinary cycle. It still seems like we are still in the Culture Wars with the Profits in charge. Just as there was an anomaly during the Civil War saeculum where an entire generation did not exist we may see either an extended cycle. I don’t see us skipping the crisis however because that is necessary for the high.

For the purpose of clarity, the following crisis have occurred during the American historical period. Those would be War of the Roses, Armada Crisis, Glorious Revolution, American Revolution, Civil War and World War II. Please look these up if you are curious for more information. The title of this chapter is actually the Fourth Turning in History making it difficult to really analyze much when it comes to facts.

End Your Programming Routine: Based on what I have outlined above, I am not convinced that we have actually ended the Unravelling. Clearly, that would make that phase over 40 years long. The other alternative would be that the Awakening shift was too short which also might be possible. From my experience, I don’t think the mood shifted until 1992 as the Reagan/Bush years were largely the same. It was the Clinton/Gore years of Christian evangelism, Global Warming, and media labelling.