Last week was all about the fourth turnings that have occurred in history. But as a reminder, this book was published in 1997 before the fourth turning has happened. So, this week is all about what the possible triggers that could occur. I have to say that while I believe we had had all of them since the book was published, I don’t see that they have actually caused the crisis.

One of the revelations in this chapter to me was, what if America did not come out better after the Crisis? There is no guarantee that just because that has been the case that it will continue in the same trajectory. What does that look like exactly? Gen-X will be in charge because they are middle age, The Millennials will be bear the brunt of the situation so that when they come to power in the High, they will create policies and mitigation strategies to move beyond the causes of the last saeculum.

As the GIs created government bureaucracy and the UN to address problems, the Millennials might create something like Artificial Intelligence. This would continue until the next crisis when something better is invented and supplants the status quo. Just because the High is not the best ever or the best in the world doesn’t mean that it still is not a High period. It simply means that it is the best era in the generation (80-100 years).

The reality of post World War II was that America was the best positioned and least damaged country coming out of the war. Sure countries like Spain and Switzerland were neutral and largely unscathed but the population and economy paled in comparison to the United States. The other potential big winner was the USSR but unfortunately, their own policies and beliefs left them short sided when it comes to world dominance.

There is also the concept that you have to play to win. Who do you know that does not gamble but yet hits the jackpot? Nobody because if you do not play you do not lose but you also do not win. Being neutral is a good strategy to not losing a war but it is also not a good strategy to participate in the spoils either. Winning very likely emboldens the winners to do things that they might not otherwise do as well.

The other thing that was interesting about this chapter were the suggested potential catalysts for crisis: financial crisis, terrorist attack, pandemic, Geopolitical war. Do any of these things sound familiar? I would say that since this book was published, every single one of them has occurred. We know about 9/11, the 2008 financial default and Afghanistan. But what about the Pandemic?

The Coronavirus Pandemic was certainly a watershed event. We talk about education and work environments in the Pre and Post pandemic constructs. I would argue that certainly was a crisis for many ‘non-essential’ workers spawning unprecedented policies like no eviction orders, massive economic stimulus and a simmering and seething division of the vaccinated versus the non-vaccinated. GI Generation tactics of getting stuff done at any costs were put into placed to force a subdued population into compliance. Propaganda in the style of censorship and a mass conformity campaign were instituted.

In my mind, 2024 was the first post pandemic election. The 2020 election was in the beginning of the event and the rejection of Trump’s initial handling as well as his propensity to bully and be vulgar. The 2022 mid-terms held a ton of uncertainty about it really being over. I see the 2024 election as a resounding rejection of the previous status quo. If the pandemic is the crisis, we are experiencing the regeneracy, we will see if that works for the economy, etc as we head to the climax and finally resolution.

End Your Programming Routine: I could easily persuaded that the 2020 pandemic is the crisis. I already believe that the saeculum has shifted due to the massively long reigns of the GI generation and the Baby Boomers. To me, the timing works even if Gen-X is not fully in charge, we are at least of age. By the time this is all over, I do believe that Trump and DOGE will fundamentally change how the government operates. The heroes are waiting in the wings to shift how we move into the next cycle.