Today is a tale about two cities that share a border. One went one way and the the other a different way. As with all of my work, many times looks are deceiving. I am relatively sure that we can take this little story and overlay it over other things that are going on to make a parable more relatable. Tune in today to find out what those cities did and what we can learn from it in other contexts.
Month: March 2025
March 14, 2025 – The Fourth Turning, Chapter 10
Last week was all about the fourth turnings that have occurred in history. But as a reminder, this book was published in 1997 before the fourth turning has happened. So, this week is all about what the possible triggers that could occur. I have to say that while I believe we had had all of them since the book was published, I don’t see that they have actually caused the crisis.
One of the revelations in this chapter to me was, what if America did not come out better after the Crisis? There is no guarantee that just because that has been the case that it will continue in the same trajectory. What does that look like exactly? Gen-X will be in charge because they are middle age, The Millennials will be bear the brunt of the situation so that when they come to power in the High, they will create policies and mitigation strategies to move beyond the causes of the last saeculum.
As the GIs created government bureaucracy and the UN to address problems, the Millennials might create something like Artificial Intelligence. This would continue until the next crisis when something better is invented and supplants the status quo. Just because the High is not the best ever or the best in the world doesn’t mean that it still is not a High period. It simply means that it is the best era in the generation (80-100 years).
The reality of post World War II was that America was the best positioned and least damaged country coming out of the war. Sure countries like Spain and Switzerland were neutral and largely unscathed but the population and economy paled in comparison to the United States. The other potential big winner was the USSR but unfortunately, their own policies and beliefs left them short sided when it comes to world dominance.
There is also the concept that you have to play to win. Who do you know that does not gamble but yet hits the jackpot? Nobody because if you do not play you do not lose but you also do not win. Being neutral is a good strategy to not losing a war but it is also not a good strategy to participate in the spoils either. Winning very likely emboldens the winners to do things that they might not otherwise do as well.
The other thing that was interesting about this chapter were the suggested potential catalysts for crisis: financial crisis, terrorist attack, pandemic, Geopolitical war. Do any of these things sound familiar? I would say that since this book was published, every single one of them has occurred. We know about 9/11, the 2008 financial default and Afghanistan. But what about the Pandemic?
The Coronavirus Pandemic was certainly a watershed event. We talk about education and work environments in the Pre and Post pandemic constructs. I would argue that certainly was a crisis for many ‘non-essential’ workers spawning unprecedented policies like no eviction orders, massive economic stimulus and a simmering and seething division of the vaccinated versus the non-vaccinated. GI Generation tactics of getting stuff done at any costs were put into placed to force a subdued population into compliance. Propaganda in the style of censorship and a mass conformity campaign were instituted.
In my mind, 2024 was the first post pandemic election. The 2020 election was in the beginning of the event and the rejection of Trump’s initial handling as well as his propensity to bully and be vulgar. The 2022 mid-terms held a ton of uncertainty about it really being over. I see the 2024 election as a resounding rejection of the previous status quo. If the pandemic is the crisis, we are experiencing the regeneracy, we will see if that works for the economy, etc as we head to the climax and finally resolution.
End Your Programming Routine: I could easily persuaded that the 2020 pandemic is the crisis. I already believe that the saeculum has shifted due to the massively long reigns of the GI generation and the Baby Boomers. To me, the timing works even if Gen-X is not fully in charge, we are at least of age. By the time this is all over, I do believe that Trump and DOGE will fundamentally change how the government operates. The heroes are waiting in the wings to shift how we move into the next cycle.
March 13, 2025 – A New Year, New Gear Part 6
What you see below is my new stove. Did I need a new stove? Technically no. I have an old 1980s era stove and my son also has a Jet-Boil (this stove is very similar). I thought about just borrowing my son’s stove and I also thought about taking my old stove as well.
First and foremost, the stove I already have. It works. My younger son uses it on camping trips. I have no qualms about the function. The main disadvantage is that it is heavy. I would guess that it weighs around five pounds. I like the fact that it uses liquid fuel as I am not a fan of disposable cylinders. I have an aluminum bottle that I use but again, that is more weight and bulk.
Using my son’s Jet-Boil was the backup plan. At one point, he said that he wanted to go. I am hoping that he is actually working by the time that I am hiking. I figure worse case scenario, I can trade out this new stove with the old one that my younger son is using. While I am enjoying this process, I will only be doing it so many times and I can put the old stove into backup duty rather than primary duty.
Why FireMaple and not Jet-Boil? The best reason is that it is cheaper by about 50%. I heard about this on the Explore Oregon podcast a few months ago. It was a show about getting into backpacking and this is the brand the expert recommended. I have to say, looking at the two side by side, they seem comparable quality and function.
In addition to the stove, This ‘kit’ comes with a 1L cup, a fuel can stabilizer and a pan adapter. Each of these pieces can be purchased individually because you can buy a stripped down option that is just the stove and pot. There are a few other things that you can add like a pressure pot (for high elevation cooking) and a French Press screen for coffee or tea. I am definitely not looking to add more weight to my trip but I am not opposed to using this stove on more trips.
The fuel cannisters come in three sizes 100g, 230g or 450g. The nice thing about the design is that both the 100g and 230g cannisters nest in the pot. Unfortunately, the 230g cannister is large enough that the lid will not lock on but it still fits. I don’t have a 450g can but that is what I am planning on taking with me. I need to do some duration testing but I am planning on only taking one cannister with me. The less the weight and bulk the better.
The stove does have a built-in igniter. I think that I will pack a secondary ignition source as well. I haven’t decided if it will be matches or a lighter. I like matches better but they limit your attempts. The old, strike anywhere matches I could light off of a zipper or rock but the the new matches are just not the same. If you wear out, lose or get your OEM striker, you matches are toast. So, it will probably be a lighter.
No doubt that this is a highly desired luxury. A water system failure can have deadly consequences. Dehydration and parasites are no joke. A stove is technically not required. In fact a friend suggested that I could eat cold freeze dried meal if I was looking to keep weight and cost down. No, not really but if I run out of fuel, it is not the end of the trip. From the other perspective, I suppose I could technically boil water so it is just another option in the toolbox.
End Your Programming Routine: Believe it or not, I am starting to get all of the necessities collected and moving onto the luxuries. The next purchase is going to be a water filter, definitely a necessity. I have plans of getting my tent at the beginning of next month. I am looking forward to that because then I can start doing some overnights. I will also switch over to my new pack on my weekend hikes carrying all the gear I will have with me.
March 12, 2025 – Finally, A Compromise
I know, I know. Every time I talk about my gardening I talk about my failures. It makes me feel like I present myself as incompetent. While I am far the best gardener, much of my failures are the result of taking chances, big ones or neglect. The lack of content in recent years is the result of me eliminating my garden beds and waffling about new ones.
I have taken to getting free seeds from the library. I have messed around with using the landscaping irrigation, I have been doing mass seed starting rather than buying starts that I know will thrive. All of this leads to gathering information but not necessarily success. All the while I tell myself that it is OK because I do not have a place to plant anyway.
Since I completely ignored any type of planting last year, I have these planting boxes that we purchased for our anniversary party sitting empty. We actually loaned them to friends for their wedding last summer but truthfully, there is a lot better use for them than an occasional ice holder. I asked my wife what her plans were with these things and she said that she wanted to plant in them this year
Of course, her idea is ornamental. She wants to put flowers and things in them. But she also wants to add two more. One of which will be a salsa garden. Ah ha, this is where I am going to plant this year. My salsa garden just might include tobacco this year (he he).
As I have said in the past, our indecision about where we will finally plant our roots has prevented me from starting the front yard garden. We don’t want to do it if we are putting our house on the market. But again, that has been three years now. I am pretty sure that I am planting some fruit trees in the front regardless. They are a low investment cost and I am applying for a matching city grant.
I am giving the old apple tree one more year. If it doesn’t produce again, it is a goner. That would be three consecutive years of no production at all. I already know that it is in pretty bad shape but as long as it was making apples, it would earn it’s keep. I don’t know if my results are bad luck or the tree finally has outlived its life. This is the year I will make the decision.
As for my seeds, most of them have not done much. I have two out of five tomatoes sprouting. There are collards and wouldn’t you know tobacco. That means no peppers or thyme or basil or purple coneflower. I will definitely buy peppers and thyme as starts, I don’t know what is going on with everything but I am going to keep messing with things.
My idea is don’t do things too drastic (plant trees in the front yard) and concentrate my work by planting in planters. Using Permaculture design principles, zone 1 is something you go by everyday. zone 2 is frequent visiting, zone 3 is occasional and zone 4 is wild. My front yard is zone 3+ for me. The side yard where I plan to put the planters are zone 2+ if you say a couple times of week is frequent. The idea is that you want things that need intensive management in the lowest zone possible. This is why the pots by my back door get watered every day because they are in zone 1. It is also why my recent gardens have failed by neglect.
End Your Programming Routine: No promises I have the best of intentions but I think that if I start with a small footprint and a limited number of things in a frequently visited area, I increase my chances. I almost feel like all these years of substandard production makes any work a waste of time. This year I plan on keeping it simple to increase my odds and give me a boost to keep trying different things in the future.
March 11, 2025 – Here We Go Again
I have put a lot of effort into my network. It is not because this is my desire, but more out of what others want out of it. I did a lot of work in the fall to try and include the apartment into the Wi-Fi mesh and to try and get all of the cameras and things connected so that the batteries were not constantly drained trying to connect. Both of those I feel like I have generally solved.
The one thing that I have generally ignored is in the attempt to connect all of these ‘things’ is the user factor in all of this. My wife complains about it, my son has complained about it, my exchange student has complained about it and even my tenant has said that there are times it does not work well. Time to do something about it.
Against my knowledge, my wife hired an internet consultant. I am not complaining, I was just surprised that there was anyone out there locally doing that kind of work. So, I listened to what he had to say. He was angling to do the work as well, but I just paid the consulting fee. I am pretty sure that I am more than capable of implementing everything since I made it this far.
One area that I am really risk adverse is gambling. To me, spending $200 on something the might work seems like gambling. When the consultant recommended adding three more units of our existing T-P Link Deco network, that certainly seemed easy. I had the same thought but I didn’t want to spend the money to see if it was an improvement. For this reason, I bought a $20 range extender when I was trying to solve my doorbell connection.
The range extender worked, I should have guessed that adding more wifi mesh capability was the solution. Let me just say that I am a wired guy. In my day to day work, all of the items in my office are wired. I never see any issues related to bandwidth that a network reset doesn’t resolve. I think more of that has to do with whatever the Internet Service Provider is doing rather than my network.
I suspect that my wife and my tenant are experiencing the same problem because they are both in the same geo proximity to the network. But regardless, I talked with the consultant about this as well. It was his recommendation to move from trying to get that unit within the mesh to adding a wireless bridge. A wireless bridge is a device that sends a signal point to point.
The plan is to swap out my outside mesh device with this wireless bridge. Part of the reason is that I already have Power over Ethernet run to it. But, now I will have a spare unit to put somewhere else. That location is TBD at the moment. I haven’t had it installed long enough to enjoy Wi-Fi in the yard yet anyway.
I will have to do some antenna work on the apartment. Another recommendation is to retire my ten year old, gateway router. This means I will have to do some cable rework. What all this means is that this is a process. But it has been one that I have been wanting to do every since I started this mesh experiment.
I am finally going to retire old passwords and general network access in favor of a more secure and segregated network. Guests will get access to the guest network. IOT devices will be on the IOT network and neither will have access to my main network. Careless security or old hardware vulnerability will not have a tunnel into the more sensitive parts of my home network.
End Your Programming Routine: This is all recent developments as I just started last weekend. This means that not all of the work is complete and the user feedback is incomplete. It is funny how something like internet grows from a novelty to a necessity. I am moving units at a time so as not to take everything down for an extended period of time. Despite the fact that I really didn’t want to pay $175 for a consultant, I would not have known about the wireless bridge and I am happy to have a reassuring opinion on what I have already done.
March 10, 2025 – Can You Be Sick and Productive?
I am sure that everyone has their own personal answer to this. For me, it throws a wrench into things when I want to do something else and I am forced to take some downtime. Of course, I always want to make the best out of an imperfect situation which leads me thinking about what I can do with this time. I talk about those things today.
March 7, 2025 – The Fourth Turning, Chapter 9
With last week covering the Unravelling and the book being written in 1997, we are moving into speculation territory for the Crisis. Since the book was written, the author Howe has chimed in on some of his observations including the foreword of this book. His speculation is that the crisis was the 2008 financial crisis. That would make the Gray Champion someone like Dr. Ron Paul.
I could probably buy that part of the theory but I don’t know anyone that was directly effected by that event. Because of that, I really do have a hard time completely adopting this event as the actual catalyst. Quite frankly, I feel like 9/11 was more of a galvanizing event that set off a lot of things in the name of fighting terrorism. With that, I am wondering who the Gray Champion is. You are also missing the Nomad generation in charge on both events.
In both 9/11 and the 2008 crisis, you really do not have the Hero generation at the age of majority. Just looking at the year 2008, the Millennials span the age ranges of 12-28. The full generation is hardly in their full summer. While a twelve year old might be effected by the mortgage crisis they were hardly in position to do anything about it. My speculation is that with the delaying of marriage and families have pushed the generational turnings out later.
We will stick to the facts here. For a crisis saeculum, you have the following steps catalyst, regeneracy, climax, resolution. With the sort of sizzle/dud, I don’t know that anyone would agree with the steps being met for 9/11. Lest we talk about the financial problems of 2008. Leaving the crisis is supposed t put us at a generational high. I sure don’t see that either.
Next week, I will write about some of the potential triggers for the crisis, so I will stick to what I have been working with here. It seems like this current cycle is something extraordinary. Because the GI generation left World War II on a rocket ship, the economy was dominant from 1946 to the late 1970’s. The Awakening economy was much better than it was supposed to be.
Minus the late seventies to mid-1980s stagflation, the economy took off again in the 1990s just as the Baby Boomers were coming into mid-life and assuming the power structure. While Strauss and Howe labelled the Unravelling (84-??) the ‘Culture Wars’, that had nothing to do with how the economy was behaving. As a result, there wasn’t much appetite to actually unravel.
Given the extraordinary size and prosperity of both the Hero and Prophet generations, I am not convinced that this is an ordinary cycle. It still seems like we are still in the Culture Wars with the Profits in charge. Just as there was an anomaly during the Civil War saeculum where an entire generation did not exist we may see either an extended cycle. I don’t see us skipping the crisis however because that is necessary for the high.
For the purpose of clarity, the following crisis have occurred during the American historical period. Those would be War of the Roses, Armada Crisis, Glorious Revolution, American Revolution, Civil War and World War II. Please look these up if you are curious for more information. The title of this chapter is actually the Fourth Turning in History making it difficult to really analyze much when it comes to facts.
End Your Programming Routine: Based on what I have outlined above, I am not convinced that we have actually ended the Unravelling. Clearly, that would make that phase over 40 years long. The other alternative would be that the Awakening shift was too short which also might be possible. From my experience, I don’t think the mood shifted until 1992 as the Reagan/Bush years were largely the same. It was the Clinton/Gore years of Christian evangelism, Global Warming, and media labelling.
March 6, 2025 – Do You See Me?
Early last week, I caught the crud. As a result, I took the whole week off. Trust me, I needed to because I could not breathe anyway. The photo below was taken the weekend before, when I was on my long hike. It was the first time I saw a game animal in the area that I have been hiking.
As I have been exploring the area, I see all of these great places that seem like ideal hunting spots. This is a research forest belonging to Oregon State University. As such, hunting is severely limited. I keep thinking that there should be an elk heard right there and I know that there are several in the area. Regardless, it makes me happy to see game. I just hope that I don’t have an unexpected cougar encounter.
I didn’t have a solid plan other than I wanted to go as far as I could before the weather started to change. Downpours were predicted to start around noon and unfortunately, I couldn’t leave until after 11AM because my wife wanted me to stop at the post office before I left. They keep extremely limited hours on Saturday only being open 11AM-1PM.
You might think, knowing all of that then maybe I should have targeted getting out of the house earlier. True, that might have been a better plan but by the time I got going and had breakfast it was 9AM. I really didn’t want to rush my training just so that I could make it to the Post Office in time. And my sickness aside, I need to have the mindset that I am going no matter the weather or other environmental factors.
True to forecast, it started drizzling at about 12:30pm. After about a half an hour, I stopped and re-arranged my pack to put my poncho on top. I told myself that if it gets much worse than this, I am going to put my poncho on. It never really got worse than intermittent drizzle until I was ten minutes from the car when it started actually raining. I figured I would suck it up and just get out of there which is what I did.
The final numbers on my hike was right at 10 miles in four hours. What I noticed is that each week I challenge myself, it gets slightly easier. From that I am gleaning, what I am doing is working. Was it hard? Absolutely it was. Did I feel like I wasn’t going to survive like on week one? No. I had to stop and catch my breath at times, my shoulders ached at points and my joints were ready to be done at mile eight, but I did it.
As I stated at the beginning, I didn’t have a real plan. The only real thought I had was to continue to explore this trail system that I have been working through. I wanted to take new routes and get familiar with all of the nuances. I had a rough idea that I was going to go to a new trail via a different route. My idea was to get to this new trail and go half a mile up the trail and turn around. By the time I got half a mile in, I wasn’t completely sure that I was on the trail that I thought I was on.
I looked at the map and I told myself that I should be meeting another trail within a couple of tenths of a mile. If not, I would backtrack the way I came all the way back to the car. As it turns out, I met the intersecting trail right where I expected it to be and so I carried on. The point I am making is that it is that desire to push a little bit farther, and then a little bit farther that is the mindset to get do more each week.
It is not like you are completely alone out there. As I was having doubts about my route a trail runner came by. If it came down to it, I would ask somebody as they seem to come around every thirty minutes or so. The area has hikers, bikers and horse riders. I have seen all three.
End Your Programming Routine: I keep telling myself that I have to embrace the suck. I distinctly remember shortchanging my half marathon training because I wanted and excuse to not do it. I literally wanted to not be fit enough to race. What actually motivated me to run was signing up. Once I had a date, I knew that I had to be ready. I probably will never be as ready as I like for this hike but I am making strides.
March 5, 2025 – The Tucci Table
The Tucci Table by Stanley Tucci is the March Left Coast Culinary Book Club selection. Normally, I would present this much later in the month but it is a short cookbook. With those, I don’t really read. I read the opening caption and scan through the list of ingredients. In a couple of evenings, I was done.
This book is supposed to be about the repertoire of recipes that the Tucci’s eat in their home. It is pretty Italian forward with some British, American and French influence. I haven’t cooked anything but the ingredient lists are pretty simple and doesn’t require many exotic ingredients that are hard to source. I would say that it is pretty approachable from that standpoint.
The one thing that I will say about Tucci is that he is pretty sincere about his food. I do believe that he takes an interest in it. In fact, we just bought two pans that had his endorsement on it from Williams and Sonoma. They are very nice pans and they were on clearance so we paid significantly less than retail value. They replaced some worn out, non-stick pans that we had. As a result, it is my opinion that he is a credible resource when it comes to cooking.
I respect the man from the culinary standpoint. As for the rest of him, my impression is that he is an ultra-egalitarian, liberal elitist. For that reason, I cringe at the selection of the book title. In addition to that, I am not a fan of pasta. I find it boring. Yes, I eat it now and then but I just don’t crave it ever. You can guess that my opinion of the book is negative.
I would say that if you had no cookbooks, this would be one that you could use for everyday cooking. It is simple and varied enough that you could make quality meals from it. But, for a person like myself there is nothing really new here. As a result, I cannot wholeheartedly recommend it.
I know that you didn’t ask but I will say it anyways. What makes a good cookbook? To me it is one that strikes at all levels. Simple cooks as well as advanced cooks can get inspiration. The last one that I remember fitting the bill was the one skillet cookbook from April 2023. It was Indian, African, Asian as well as western all cooking in one dish. That was novel and interesting.
There are some celebrity chefs that I am a fan of. I like Paula Dean for authentic southern food, Rick Bayless for Mexican food and Steven Reichl for barbeque. To me, it is not the notoriety of the chef but the subject mastery that makes me respect the chef. I am not saying that Tucci has not mastered food, but lets face it he is an actor. As such, there is a credibility gap.
It reminds me of when Emeril Lagasse became famous in the mid-1990s. I don’t know for sure but my impression is that he is a competent and surely charismatic Cajun chef. But, does that mean that he is now an authority in counter top ovens or inexpensive cookware? They may be fine products but just as likely it is a money grab. Anytime someone is using their name to hawk wares, we need to consider the source and motivation.
End Your Programming Routine: Is it really bad? No, it is meh. Tucci has good branding sense and just like there are Food Channel groupies there are Tucci groupies. They are going to latch onto whatever he puts out. I don’t select all the books, I help facilitate the operation. It is just my two cents on this selection.
March 4, 2025 – Maybe This is the Trick?
I finally got my seeds started. Once again, this is another year of experimentation so I wouldn’t be surprised to get very mixed results. I am thinking that I should probably put more effort into grouping seeds by preferred environment rather than trying to ‘fill up my tray’. The last time I did this, I only got half a tray of germination because I think some seeds sprouted before others. and not everything got ideal circumstances.
One of the reasons I was dragging my feet this year was that I wanted to mark the individual cell. I also wanted my efforts to be cheap or preferably free. In the past I have used tape on the row but then I am afraid to break-up the cells for fear of losing track of what plant is what. I believe that once germinated, I will need to transplant into larger vessels to get these plants to thrive. Do you see the method to my madness?
What I came up with this year was to use some plastic drinking straws that have been around forever. Since I am not selling the straws on eBay, I might as well get some use from them as I have been handling them so long. If I really had my stuff together, I would take advantage of the color code to do something. But in this case, I simply grouped different seeds by color.
What I am ultimately hoping for is a couple plants for each row. I don’t have the space for five tomato plants anyway. If I am lucky and get everything to germinate, then I will attempt to give the plants away. Using that logic, I only planted smaller numbers of certain things like peppers because five habenero plants is too much for anybody. I am pretty sure that I can get my dad to take whatever I don’t want. If nobody wants them then I will still be money ahead than buying starts anyway.
Basically what I started were mostly hot house vegetables. Tomato, bell pepper, jalapeno and habanero. I planted cabbage and collards as well. For herbs, I planted thyme and basil. I picked two tobacco varieties just to see what happens and the rest is purple coneflower or echinacea. I am really hoping that the flowers make it because they will be perennial and I would like to do some mass planting.
This whole effort of starting from seeds was really an attempt to experiment with succession planting. That is to get a second garden going as the season wore on. My problem is that the summer season seems so long and endless that I actually lose interest during the dog days of summer. This is all been an attempt to skillfully growing food in case I ever needed the production.
It is easy to keep focus on the tray when the weather is bad and the daylight is low. As time moves on, there is the feeling that I can start seeds later, I can water the cells later, I am busy with this project or that one. It becomes out of sight, out of mind. This is the whole reason I didn’t even attempt to start seeds last year. I already know my tendency to ignore the garden. As it turns out, there is no way I would have kept one alive when I wasn’t even pretending to try.
There is no doubt that my most successful year gardening was my first. I was coming off of a brutal year on the road and just wanted to be home. My second best year was potentially going to be 2020 when I was home and got plants in the ground but spent all my time remodeling the apartment. For that reason, I don’t believe that successful gardening is as much skill as it is being present.
End Your Programming Routine: I am not holding my breath that this year will be any different than recent years past. That being said, you don’t learn if you don’t try. I am happy that I got started and I am pleased with my markers. If I can manage to be present enough, then maybe I will be on my way to a bumper crop.
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